Kay Hagan entered the 2008 U.S. Senate race as one of fifty North Carolina State Senators and with name- identification of just 16% statewide. Kay was challenging well-liked, universally known incumbent Elizabeth Dole - a former President of the Red Cross and political icon who broke glass ceilings and was revered across the state.  Despite Dole’s initial popularity (59% Favorable) and a solid job rating (60% Positive), our polling indicated that voters saw her as too close to George Bush and the special interests and more of a product of Washington than of her North Carolina roots. Behind a broad popularity, Dole had real vulnerabilities and a path to a Hagan victory existed, but we faced the dual challenges of disqualifying the incumbent and introducing Kay as a credible and attractive alternative. Further complicating our prospects, it was clear that Kay would be significantly outspent by the incumbent (Dole’s campaign ultimately spent more than $17M compared to less than $9M for the Hagan campaign).  

A primary against a credible but lightly funded opponent forced early television expenditures but also provided an opportunity to introduce Kay to voters during the primary, with an eye toward the general election.  Anzalone Liszt polling helped identify elements of the Hagan story and key issues that would resonate both with the Democratic primary electorate and the broader universe of general election voters. Our introductory primary messaging served as an investment in the general election, credentialing Kay as a bipartisan businesswoman and an effective problem-solver in the State Senate.  We also began to lay claim to the change thematic, and establish Kay’s credentials on jobs and energy – issues that would become critical in the fall. After winning with a resounding 60% in a five-candidate primary field, Kay’s name-ID had more than doubled, and Dole’s initial double-digit lead was almost completely wiped out. The resonant messaging in the primary, Kay’s strong victory, and the resulting competitive polling catapulted this once second tier race higher on the national radar. 

HAGAN PRIMARY AD

Dole attempted to leverage her fundraising advantage in the post-primary summer period to re-introduce herself to voters, inoculate against perceptions of ineffectiveness and being too D.C.-focused, and establish a campaign narrative around GOP wheel-house issues like immigration. Dole’s early media only temporarily papered over her fundamental vulnerability, while the race changed dramatically once our campaign was able to re-engage on television in August.  Within roughly a month of Hagan hitting the air, Dole’s job rating cratered to the low 40s and Kay led the incumbent for the rest of the campaign. Our polling indicated that the critical contrasts were Dole’s fealty to the special interests and economic policies that hurt North Carolina families, compared to Kay Hagan’s independent record in the State Senate and her commitment to cracking down on the Dole policies that sent North Carolina jobs overseas. Precise message testing combined with compelling television spots solidified a Hagan lead that endured for the final two months of the campaign.

KAY HAGAN GENERAL ELECTION AD

The DSCC’s independent expenditure campaign also had a great deal of impact on this race. The DSCC focused on Dole’s lack of effectiveness (93 of 100) and her overwhelming support of Bush policies (92% support). The DSCC ad delivered an effective message in a subtle and light-hearted manner, and did real damage to Dole while the Hagan campaign was still establishing its footing.

DSCC “ROCKING CHAIR” AD

Dole’s final desperation ploy was a last minute negative ad calling into question Kay Hagan’s Christian faith. Anzalone Liszt helped construct the response to Dole’s vicious ad, and our polling monitored the back-and-forth in the final weeks to ensure we’d effectively responded to the Dole smears.

HAGAN RESPONSE TO DOLE “GODLESS” AD

On Election Day, Kay Hagan beat Elizabeth Dole by a solid 9-point margin (53% Hagan / 44% Dole).  President Obama also won the state, and Beverly Perdue kept the open Governor’s seat in the Democratic column – but Kay led the ticket with a 350K+ vote margin over Dole. Anzalone Liszt polling and strategic guidance helped transform a race that most observers believed to be a likely Republican retention as late as Summer 2008 into a resounding Democratic takeover of the seat once held by Jesse Helms.