President-elect Obama’s decision to tap then Congressman Rahm Emanuel as his Chief of Staff created a political vacuum in the overwhelmingly Democratic district that encompasses much of Chicago’s North Side, spanning from Wrigley Field on Lake Michigan to the city’s western suburbs. Thirteen Democratic candidates filed to run in the March 2009 special election, among them a county commissioner, a city alderman, two state representatives, a netroots favorite, and other candidates who ran the gamut of Chicago’s diverse ethnic and political landscape. None of the candidates were known to a majority of the electorate, placing a premium on fundraising and organizational endorsements. However, our candidate, County Commissioner Mike Quigley, was outspent 2:1 by State Representative Sara Feigenholtz and 1.5:1 by State Representative John Fritchey. To compound matters, Feigenholtz received the backing of EMILY’s List, the National Organization of Women, and SEIU – while Fritchey was endorsed by the state AFL-CIO and AFSCME.

However, what Quigley lacked in fundraising and insider connections he made up for with a compelling message. Our polling found that voters were furious with Cook County Board President Todd Stroger, specifically Stroger’s unpopular tax increases. Quigley’s credentials as one of the most successful opponents of wasteful county government generally - and as one of Stroger’s most visible critics positioned him well to take advantage of the overwhelming discontent toward Stroger and Cook County government. While our opponents conserved money to leverage their financial advantages in the expensive Chicago broadcast television market, our polling and strategic advice helped chart a different course. Instead of competing at a deficit with the other candidates on television, the Quigley campaign largely abandoned television in favor of a robust mail-plan targeted to undecided voters and those most critical to Quigley’s chances to win. Chicago’s insider-political class largely scoffed at this strategy.

We knew Quigley’s reform credentials would resonate, and we knew we were communicating through mail with voters for weeks while the other candidates waited to close with a flurry of expensive broadcast television. These two elements set the stage for an underdog Quigley win. The campaign’s final strategic decision was to embrace the unusual phenomenon of both the Chicago Tribune and Chicago Sun Times backing the same candidate (Quigley) in a competitive race. Newspaper endorsements are traditionally not potent enough to move voters, but in a low-turnout, highly informed electorate, many primary voters were looking for cues as to which of the largely undefined Democratic candidates to support. Our firm advised highlighting the rarity of a dual endorsement in our late mail and small television buy.

Ultimately, despite being outspent 8:1 on television and having the traditional power-brokers align against his candidacy, our research helped Mike Quigley find the right message and target it to the right voters. Quigley won the primary with 22% and by 2,300 votes – earning the Democratic nomination and ultimately a safe seat in Congress.